Obama’s Approval Rating & The Big Picture

September 7, 2012

Pres. Obama illustrates which way his approval is headed.

Today’s Gallup poll on President Obama’s approval rating was interesting for a couple of reasons.  First, and most obviously, the current results (using a three-day rolling average) show the President with a 52% approval versus a 43% disapproval.  You have to go back to  June of 2011 to find a better margin.

Second, however, the results seem to validate a criticism of the GOP Convetion — that it fell flat in terms of reaching out and persuading people outside the Republican base.  Yes, there was some pandering to women, but the bulk of what went on was either self-serving (Chris Christie) or hyperbolic nonsense (Clint Eastwood), the overwhelming majority of which was aimed at the kind of people who were already going to vote for Mitt Romney.

Consider the following daily ratings (again, using a three-day rolling average).  The dates listed are the last day included in the polling sample:

8/28: 43-47
8/29: 44-47
8/30: 45-46
8/31: 45-46
9/01: 43-48
9/02: 45-48
9/03: 45-48
9/04: 47-47
9/05: 49-45
9/06: 52-43

Of course, 8/28 was the scheduled start date for the GOP Convention, and it ended on 8/30.  The Democratic Convention ran 9/04 through 9/06.  So, even accounting for some statistical noise (MOE +/- 3%), the impact of the Democratic Convention on how people perceive President Obama was much higher than the GOP’s impact.  I’m curious to see if today’s job report has a downward effect on the poll over the next few days, but, as it stands, this poll cannot be seen as anthing but bad news for a Romney campaign that was already facing a highly likely defeat.



  1. I love fivethirtyeight. It’s just so inconvenient finding several different computers to get around the pay wall. Those ten free articles a month don’t last long this time of year.

  2. When you get the URL that brings up the “you’ve reached your limit this month” overlay, you can just delete everything that follows .html (so everything from the ? to the end) and you’ll be fine.

    • What kind of sorcery is this?

  3. Sliver’s now-cast has Obama at a 92% chance. Unless something big happens at the debates, it’s over. It’s time to help him with a Congress that will do things like pass a farm bill. We need to help out Ellington as much as possible. Losing Ross for Cotton is an even swap. But flipping Rick will be a big step forward.

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